Nobody is winning the War on Terror

Most Wanted is fast paced thriller set against the background of the War on Terror. A critical issue for all of us sane individuals, who look forward to victory against the terrorists, is whether or not we are actually winning this war? But before we can answer the question, we must reach a common understanding on the extent of the conflict and who are the true opponents. Many wrongly perceive the US alliance to be fighting al-Qaeda and it’s sympathizers, part of a single homogeneous organization; when in fact it faces a global, radical Islamic insurgency. During the Bush years the war on terror was narrowly equated firstly to the campaign in Afghanistan and then later to Iraq. Undoubtedly, the focus in Afghanistan is more closely aligned to the objective of fighting terror, with its aim to put al-Qaeda and the Taliban out of business. Arguably though, the war in Iraq has had very little to do with combating terrorism on a global scale. Yet, no matter how you define the war victory appears elusive.

Radical Islam is much more insidious than just al Qaeda—comprising a whole range of loosely knit networks and organizations that are united only in their opposition to long standing Western policies. In most cases there is no obvious connection to al Qaeda—take for example the perpetrators of the 7/7 London bombings or the 2008 attackers in Mumbai. These groups are antagonized by geo-political issues such as the unquestioning US support for Israel; America’s continuing presence on the Arabian Peninsula; and Western support for regimes perceived as oppressing Muslims; and at the same time most factions have their own regional agendas superimposed.

President Obama is attempting to move the goal posts, with the withdrawal from Iraq; the renewed focus on Afghanistan/Pakistan and a rapprochement with the Arab and Muslim world. And although they would appear to be moves in the right direction it is questionable whether it is just too little too late. There seems to be never ending numbers of new jihadists prepared fight for their cause. And while Western policies continue to alienate Arabs and Muslims in general, it provides fertile ground for those who manipulate in the name of religion. If the US and their allies are ever going to win the War on Terror it is critical to recognize what victory really looks like. The capture or demise of bin Laden would certainly be a milestone, but in no way can be considered as a complete victory. Moreover, this could become a double edged sword for the US alliance, particularly if his death were to be interpreted by his supporters as martyrdom. On the other hand, would a triumph in Afghanistan be enough to declare the West winners? NATO forces seem to be bogged down like the Russians before them, so it is difficult to foresee this outcome. Moreover, it is debatable whether there will ever be peace without tackling some of the root causes of Arab and Muslim discontent. Whether US politicians like it or not, among the many intractable problems that somehow need to be addressed are: some resolution of the Palestine question and changes in policy towards Israeli. Despite the persistent failure of the West’s peace efforts; positive change must be part of the solution or we risk a continuing cycle of violence over the coming decades. Right now it is impossible to say that anyone is winning the War on Terror.

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Wadi Bashing

In the early stages of the spy thriller—Most Wanted—we find our heroes driving hard, “wadi-bashing”; pursuing the world’s most wanted terrorist through the most spectacular landscapes on the Arabian peninsular. The chase through Yemen plays out against the backdrop of rugged mountain scenery; dotted with unique architecture; and interspersed with green verdant terraces and lush oases.

The trail takes them northward into Sada province, home to lawless Yemeni tribesmen armed to the teeth. The tribes in this region have a different culture, are fiercely independent and for many years they have taken to kidnapping foreigners. Hostages were typically taken to pressure the government; mainly to free clan members from jail and were then generally released unharmed. However, more recently the tribesmen have developed stronger links with a resurgent Al Qaeda and tourists are now strongly advised to avoid Yemen.
Descending the mountain passes towards the largely uninhabited border area with Saudi Arabia, our fugitives make their getaway skirting the edge of the Empty Quarter, where the rocky terrain gives way to massive rolling sand dunes. This is the true Arabian Desert. Driving skills are critical to navigate in this territory, as the unwary can quickly lose a shock absorber or become trapped deep in the sand. Rescue is not usually close at hand either, as only the occasional Bedouin inhabit this desolate, barren land. Traditionally smuggling of contraband into and out of Saudi has been one of the main economic activities in the region. The Saudis found it very difficult to control illegal imports and in recent years have become concerned to stop the infiltration of terrorist groups, seeking to carry out attacks in Saudi Arabia. A network of sandbags and pipelines, three meters high, filled with concrete and fitted with electronic detection equipment was constructed in 2000, in an attempt to curb the penetration of the border. After Yemeni protests work was stopped in 2004. Somehow it is difficult to imagine that such measures would deter a stubborn tribesman never mind a trained insurgent.

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